How Do We Predict Future Climate Changes?
Introduction
In order to predict future climate changes it is necessary to look at past patterns and trends. The graph below shows how the global temperature has changed over the last 130 thousand years. Between 20,000 years ago and the present, the Earth warmed by as much as 6°C.
Predictions of climate change over the next 100 to 150 years are based only on climate models.
Climate Models
Climate models are special computer programmes. Climate models have attempted to show man-made influences on climate change. Firstly, climate models are used to gain a clearer picture of past climates. Then they compare their results with real data from observations of climate changes. If a good match is found between the model results and the real observations, the model is believed to be working well, and it can then be used to predict future changes in climate. All climate models, however, are subject to a lot of uncertainty, and their predictions should not be considered to be fool proof, but as intelligent estimations based on existing knowledge.
